![]() If we then assume that each cigarette makes the same contribution to his death, each cigarette has cost him, on average, 11 minutes of life:Ħ.5 years=2374 days, 56 976 hours, or 3 418 560 minutesĥ772 cigarettes per year for 54 years=311 688 cigarettesģ 418 560/311 688=11 minutes per cigarette. 4 We calculated that if a man smokes the average number of cigarettes a year (5772) from the median starting age of 17 until his death at the age of 71 he will consume a total of 311 688 cigarettes in his lifetime. We used the proportion of smokers by age group, the median age of starting smoking, and the average number of cigarettes smoked per week in the 1996 general household survey. Applying the rates of Doll et al to the latest interim life tables for men in England and Wales, with adjustment for the proportion of smokers and non-smokers in each five year age group, 3 we found a difference in life expectancy between smokers and non-smokers of 6.5 years. 2 Average life expectancy from birth for the whole population or subgroups can be derived from life tables. 1 The relative death rates of smokers compared with non-smokers were threefold for men aged 45-64 and twofold for those aged 65-84, 1 as corroborated elsewhere. We derived the difference in life expectancy for smokers and non-smokers by using mortality ratios from the study of Doll et al of 34 000 male doctors over 40 years. Our calculation is for men only and based on the difference in life expectancy between male smokers and non-smokers and an estimate of the total number of cigarettes a regular male smoker might consume in his lifetime. We estimated how much life is lost in smoking one cigarette. These findings may also be converted into differences in life expectancy. ![]() See the full statement from the Science and Security Board on the 2018 time of the Doomsday Clock.Editor-Studies investigating the impact on mortality of socioeconomic and lifestyle factors such as smoking tend to report death rates, death rate ratios, odds ratios, or the chances of smokers reaching different ages. They can seize the opportunity to make a safer and saner world. They can demand action to reduce the existential threat of nuclear war and unchecked climate change. They can insist on facts, and discount nonsense. Leaders react when citizens insist they do so, and citizens around the world can use the power of the internet to improve the long-term prospects of their children and grandchildren. But there is a flip side to the abuse of social media. ![]() The world has seen the threat posed by the misuse of information technology and witnessed the vulnerability of democracies to disinformation. The opportunity to reduce the danger is equally clear. The warning the Science and Security Board now sends is clear, the danger obvious and imminent. It is two minutes to midnight, but the Doomsday Clock has ticked away from midnight in the past, and during the next year, the world can again move it further from apocalypse. ![]() The failure of world leaders to address the largest threats to humanity’s future is lamentable-but that failure can be reversed. ![]()
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